AL Central-leading White Sox continue trip in Seattle

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox ended the season's first half as the hottest team in baseball, but things haven't gotten so smoothly since the club returned from the All-Star break.

The American League Central leaders will try to rebound from a shocking late- inning loss on Sunday when they continue their current road trip with tonight's matchup with the Seattle Mariners from Safeco Field.

Chicago won its final eight games prior to the break to vault into first place in the competitive AL Central, then extended its impressive win streak with an 8-7 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. The White Sox then proceeded to lose their next three clashes with the division-rival Twins and are in the midst of their longest skid since a four-game slide from April 15-18.

The White Sox appeared poised to end their winless drought on Sunday, taking a three-run lead into the ninth inning of the finale of the Minnesota series. However, the Twins scored four times off closer Bobby Jenks in their final at- bat to rally for a 7-6 triumph.

Jenks (1-2) entered the bottom of the ninth charged with protecting a 6-3 advantage, but promptly walked the first two batters before surrendering back- to-back RBI singles to Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. Sergio Santos then came on in relief and walked Jason Repko to load the bases, and Delmon Young followed with a bloop single to tie the score. Center fielder Alex Rios' relay throw missed the cutoff man on the play, allowing Cuddyer to score the winning run from third.

"Just didn't have it," Jenks said afterward. "My cutter was coming back, my sinker wasn't sinking, the slider was big. Just didn't have my stuff today."

Sunday's win moved the Twins within 1 1/2 games of the White Sox in the AL Central standings. Chicago also holds a 1 1/2-game edge on Detroit, which was swept in a four-game set with last-place Cleveland over the weekend.

On a positive note, Chicago's Gordon Beckham went 4-for-4 with two RBI in yesterday's loss to extend his hitting streak to seven games. The sophomore second baseman has gone 12-for-18 at the plate over his last five outings.

The White Sox will turn to youngster Daniel Hudson tonight in hopes of reversing their recent fortunes. The rookie right-hander will be making his second start since being called up from the minors to take the rotation spot of the injured Jake Peavy.

Hudson struggled in his season debut, allowing five runs on six hits and walking three batters before leaving after four innings of a July 11 loss at Kansas City. The 23-year-old had been pitching very well for Triple-A Charlotte prior to the promotion, compiling an 11-4 record with a 3.47 earned run average and 108 strikeouts in 17 starts for the Knights.

A fifth-round selection of Chicago in the 2008 draft, Hudson made six appearances (two starts) for the White Sox last September and went 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

He'll be taking on a Seattle club that ranks last in the AL in both runs scored (309) and batting average (.239) and is a woeful 3-12 thus far in July. The Mariners were able to halt a string of four consecutive losses, however, with an extra-inning verdict over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on Sunday.

Jose Lopez knocked in the deciding run with a two-out single in the top of the 10th in yesterday's 2-1 win, scoring Franklin Gutierrez from second base. Gutierrez had reached base on a fielder's choice and got into scoring position with a steal of second.

Lopez ended 2-for-5 for the Mariners, who prevailed despite managing only five hits on the afternoon. Starting pitcher Jason Vargas performed well in a no- decision, holding the Angels to a run on four hits and striking out a career- high nine batters in 7 2/3 innings of work.

"I was able to throw quality pitches and I had good control of my changeup," said Vargas. "I knew I had to hold them down to win the game." The Mariners would love to receive a similar showing from David Pauley in tonight's opener of this three-game series. The longtime minor-leaguer is getting a look in the Seattle rotation following the team's recent trade of All-Star Cliff Lee to Texas.

Pauley took Lee's scheduled turn in a July 9 clash against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field and pitched admirably, yielding three runs -- one earned -- and just two hits over five innings. He still wound up with the loss, however, in Seattle's 6-1 setback.

The start was Pauley's first in the majors since September 26, 2008, while then a member of the Boston Red Sox, and sixth of his career. The right-hander is still in search of his initial win at the big-league level, as he's 0-4 with a 7.47 ERA in 13 appearances with the Mariners and Red Sox.

This will be the first-ever encounter with Chicago for Pauley, who threw four scoreless innings over a combined three relief appearances after being recalled from the minors in late June.

The White Sox swept a three-game set from the Mariners in Chicago from April 23-25, but lost four of six bouts between these teams held at Safeco Field last season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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